Qatar has halted liquefied natural gas (LNG) production after its facilities came under attack amid the ongoing West Asia conflict, disrupting supplies to India and squeezing feedstock availability for key domestic sectors.
Taking Kharg would give the US control over virtually all of Iran's oil exports and thus provide significant leverage, notes Prem Panicker in his must read daily blog on the Gulf War. It would also put American troops within range of Iran's remaining missiles, drones, and artillery on a piece of real estate that is just eight square miles in size, and just 15 miles from the Iranian mainland.
The clock on the ceasefire is running out. But everyone's already whispering about round two, possibly as soon as this weekend.
US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed the Iran conflict and its impact on global energy supplies during a phone call.
Egypt, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkey met in Islamabad in what analysts say is the formal opening of a new diplomatic formation that could reshape the post-war regional order. Their immediate goal is a ceasefire; their larger ambition is to ensure that neither Iran nor Israel emerges from this war in a dominant position. Pakistan's foreign minister then flew directly to Beijing and mooted a Chinese role as guarantor of any eventual agreement. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
The 'rescue' operation occurred within kilometres of Iran's underground tunnel complex at Isfahan, assessed by the IAEA and US intelligence as holding a substantial portion of the country's 60 per cent enriched uranium stockpile. Retired senior US military officers have highlighted that the mission's footprint -- hundreds of special operators, multiple heavy-lift aircraft deep inside Iran -- appears outsized for recovering a single airman. Prem Panicker continues his must read blog on the Iran War.
The Indian basket represents the price of Oman and Dubai sour grade crude.
Two Indian ships carrying liquified petroleum gas (LPG) from the Gulf countries crossed the Strait of Hormuz early on Saturday morning, raising the number of Indian vessels safely passing through the war-hit, narrow shipping lane to three.
The United States, which entered this war in expectation of a short, sharp win along the Venezuela model, is now preparing for deeper involvement in a conflict it does not fully control, without the allies it typically relies on, against an adversary that is not behaving as expected, in a global environment that is already absorbing economic shock. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
Let us start with ourselves. If we can reduce our LPG consumption by half, the problem is solved. Reduce wastage. Alter eating styles. Diversify methods of food preparation, suggests Vice Admiral Biswajit Dasgupta (retd).
If the oil infrastructure is attacked by the United States, the whole area could be flooded with oil, spilling into the Persian Gulf.
Analysts predict a surge in gold and silver prices as investors seek safe-haven assets due to escalating tensions in the Middle East. The impact on domestic prices will depend on the conflict's duration, with geopolitical factors and macroeconomic data also playing a role.
The intriguing bit is that Trump is likely to attend the talks in Islamabad this weekend -- if he does, it will be the clearest signal yet that the US is ready to exit the war with some sort of win to show, since he cannot afford to go for the talks and return empty-handed, notes Prem Panicker in his must read blog on the Iran War
Fight on toward goals that keep receding, or exit with most objectives unmet. Trump is agitated, his poll numbers falling below the Plimsoll line, his base fractured between those who back the war and those who remember that he campaigned on ending them.
The delegations from the US and Iran head to Islamabad on Friday, carrying a ceasefire that is already fraying, a Strait that is technically open and practically closed, and a negotiating agenda that would challenge even parties actually negotiating in good faith, which these groups are not. Prem Panicker continues his must read blog on the Iran War.
Iran has not closed the Strait. It remains open; however, due to current conditions and circumstances, ships are unable to pass through the Hormuz. Otherwise, Iran never wanted the Strait to be closed or blocked, the supreme leader's representative said.
Alliances fight wars effectively only when they share an endgame. If Israel acted without US knowledge, then the military alliance is operating without real coordination at the level of strategic targeting. Neither picture is reassuring in a war that is no longer regional in its consequences. Prem Panicker continues his must read daily blog on the Gulf War.
The LPG squeeze on India's restaurant sector is the quotidian face of a deeper crisis.
When everyone has footage and no one can verify it, the loudest voice wins, notes Prem Panicker who begins a daily blog on the War in the Middle East.
"We will be guided by our national interest," he said.
The United States on Friday exempted some countries, including India and China, from the tough Iranian sanctions act as they continue to reduce their dependence on Iranian oil.
Over the previous eight sessions, Brent had lost about $7 a barrel, almost 20 per cent
'Without ground troops the US will not be able to oust the Iranian Islamic regime. Political change does not happen just by using bombs or planes.'
US strikes on Iran's three main nuclear facilities have once again raised concerns that Tehran might shut down the Strait of Hormuz - one of the world's most critical chokepoints, through which a fifth of global oil and gas supply flows.
'We are profoundly energy-dependent on the Gulf. That dependency must now be redirected towards the United States, because we require American permission to procure oil.' 'We additionally require Iranian permission to acquire oil from that source. So India now has to seek two separate permissions merely to secure its energy supply.' 'Should we be compelled to source from America, or from Venezuela -- which is, in effect, American-controlled supply -- that will inevitably carry a price premium, an elevated shipping cost, and a considerably extended delivery timeline, given the distances involved.'
Petroleum minister M Veerappa Moily would like to import 11 million tonnes of Iranian crude in this financial year.
'There is no shortage of fuel whatsoever.' 'India is stock surplus as far as petrol and diesel are concerned.'
Israel and the United States had a plan. Iran punched back. And now the Gulf is reeling, the world is beginning to feel the pain and, as on date, no one in Washington or Tel Aviv appears willing to admit that the punch has landed, notes Prem Panicker, continuing his must-read blog on the war in the Middle East.
"We have been importing 3 million barrels of crude oil per month from Iran. There is no change in that status... there has been no disruption in supplies... We continue to import same volumes (this month)," Essar Oil Managing Director and CEO Naresh Nayyar said.
US, EU have shut down the use of their financial systems for Iranian crude trade.
As settlement in dollars has become difficult due to sanctions imposed against Iran, India and Iran will explore other currencies like the euro, yen and dirham to resolve the stalemate over payment for oil imports at their meeting later this week in Tehran.
Oil imports are a third of India's total import bill.
It cannot, however, use the money to invest in India or buy shares or companies.
The US is working with countries, including India to reduce their dependence on Iranian oil, a top official has said, noting it understands the energy needs of New Delhi and its long-standing ties with Tehran.
I am inclined to believe that the Venezuela adventure is not an indication of American strength, alas, but rather of American weakness, points out Rajeev Srinivasan.
Sensex heavyweight Reliance Industries fell 2.76 per cent. In percentage terms, major laggards were Yes Bank, Indusind Bank, RIL, ICICI Bank, HDFC and Axis Bank -- plunging as much as 6.62 per cent.
The United States is in touch with several countries, including India and Turkey, on how to "significantly reduce" their dependence on Iranian oil to avoid American sanctions in this regard, a State Department official has said. "We are working hard with India to see if we can help with regard to reducing the country's dependence and the dependence of any of the other countries on Iranian crude, and looking at alternative sources of supply as well," said a spokesperson.
Clearing the way for oil refiners to pay Iran in Indian rupee, the Union Budget has exempted the payments made for crude oil purchased from the Persian Gulf nation, from any local tax.
Asia's buyers of Iranian crude believe they've cut their purchases from Tehran enough to justify an extension of their U.S waivers, and strictly speaking, they probably have.
Teheran bargains on OilMin plan for more rupee payment via increased import; wants investment deal on gas block.
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